The Greens’ will win this “bleak” election, with voters mostly concerned about climate change. At least, that’s according to the results of the first Very Scientific Ensemble Election Poll™, conducted via Instagram last week.
Talbot Mills, Curia, Reid Research, Verian, Guardian Essential: each week new political polls are released by reputable research companies, purporting to offer a snapshot of voter sentiment before Aotearoa votes on October 14 (or from today, if you’re advance voting). But we know Instagram is a reflection of real life (right?), so we wanted to do a poll of our own to gauge the mood.
The name is sarcastic. There is real merit in legitimate polls, but they can be inaccurate, there can be vested interests at play and the media relies too heavily on them for splashy headlines (look, we did it too!).
If anything, our Very Scientific Ensemble Election Poll™ is a reminder to interpret them all with your media literacy on high alert (here are 10 things to think about when evaluating a political poll). It’s also a reminder that poll results are not election results: this election is far from a forgone conclusion, so please: vote, vote vote!
We shared our questions via Ensemble’s Instagram stories, with several questions and prompts. Yes, it is a biased pool that absolutely over-represents some groups and under-represents others. The sample size was an average of 245 (the typical sample size is 1000; a recent Auckland Central poll funded by the taxpayers union sampled 500 people). The margin of error? Probably a lot, we’re not statisticians.
The results were largely, and unsurprisingly given our methods, at odds with the mainstream – and accurately run – election polls.
We asked which political party people were currently planning to vote for. Because Instagram only allows four options for a poll result, we offered the choice between Labour and National or the chance to answer ‘other’ with a specific party.
The Green Party came out on top at 57.21%, followed by Labour at 23.87%, National at 11.71% and Te Pati Māori at 1.35%. Those saying Greens or Te Pati Māori was at 3.15%.
We also asked who people would personally prefer as prime minister, choosing to focus on the leaders of the two major parties. 92% said that Chris Hipkins is their personally preferred PM, while 8% said Christopher Luxon.
Climate change and the environment was, by far, the biggest issue influencing voting decisions, followed by the cost of living. Other issues most mentioned were inequality, tax (including a wealth tax), poverty and healthcare.
The pre-election sentiment was largely gloomy. Asked how they are feeling about this election, 77% answered bleak, 16% chose hopeful, 4% are excited and 2% said they don’t care.
But our audience is incredibly engaged, with 98% saying ‘yes, duh’ as to whether they will vote this year. 1% say no, while 1% are undecided.
We also wanted to know if people had changed their voting habits since the last election in 2020. 60% said they are voting the same way they did last election, while 30% said no, they won’t be voting the same way. There were still undecided voters, with 10% responding “TBC, tbh”.
We also asked people the most important question they wanted to ask party leaders ahead of the election; we will aim to put some of these to parties.
For a slightly more, ahem, accurate perspective, see Stuff’s rolling poll which brings together the results of the top political polls from across the country (including the Newshub Reid Research poll, 1 News Verian poll, the Taxpayers’ Union Curia poll, the Talbot Mills poll, and Guardian Essential Poll).
• Aotearoa’s general election will be held on Saturday October 14 – check your electorate, and that you’re enrolled to vote, here. And find all you need to know about voting ahead of election day here
